Top Takeaways

New US Tariff Deals while Asia Air Patterns Shift and Canada Manufacturing Rebounds

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  • The United States advanced multiple trade arrangements with Argentina, India, Taiwan, Guatemala and Bangladesh that adjust tariff rates and expand market access, while also issuing an executive order establishing a process to impose tariffs linked to prohibited trade with Iran.
  • Strong January exports kept Asia air freight busy but prevented the usual late surge ahead of Lunar New Year, spreading peak demand across several weeks rather than triggering a sharp spike.
  • Canada’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion in January, as the PMI rose above 50 for the first time in a year despite continued tariff-driven cost pressures.

Regions

North America

Air

  • On February 5, the United States and Argentina signed a trade and investment agreement eliminating hundreds of tariffs on goods traded between the two countries. Under the deal, the US will remove more than 1,600 tariffs on Argentine products, while Argentina will lift over 220 tariffs on US exports. The agreement also expands Argentina’s beef export quota to the US to 100,000 tons, up from 20,000 tons—an increase valued at an estimated $800 million. In addition, tariffs on US machinery, medical components, and chemical products will be reduced, with certain auto‑parts duties lowered to 2%. The agreement will now be submitted to Argentina’s Congress for approval.
  • Canada’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 50.4 in January from 48.6, moving above the 50.0 no change mark for the first time in a year and reaching a 12-month high. Output rose slightly, ending an 11-month downturn, and employment increased for the first time in a year. However, tariffs continued to disrupt trade, particularly with the United States, and drove input costs to a five-month high. In response to higher costs, manufacturers raised their own charges at the fastest pace since March 2025.

Ocean

  • Hapag-Lloyd has signed a definitive agreement to acquire ZIM Integrated Shipping Services in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $4.2 billion, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. Under the proposed structure, a new Israeli company would acquire certain portions of ZIM’s business, while international operations would be integrated into Hapag-Lloyd’s network. The transaction reflects ongoing consolidation within the global container shipping industry.
  • The US has unveiled a maritime revitalization action plan centered on the creation of a Maritime Security Trust Fund, largely financed through new fees on foreign‑built commercial vessels calling at US ports. The plan proposes a cargo‑based fee ranging from 1 cent to 25 cents per kilogram, which is projected to generate between $66 billion and nearly $1.5 trillion over ten years. It also includes a 0.125% Land Port Maintenance Tax on goods entering the US by land. Revenue from these measures would be used to support domestic shipbuilding, fleet expansion, and maritime workforce development. Many elements of the plan require Congressional approval and are expected to move forward as part of the FY2027 budget process.
  • Ocean Alliance and Ocean Network Express will remove ships and consolidate US port calls in their jointly operated trans-Atlantic network beginning in April. The revised network will deploy seven ships, down from 11, representing a 37% drop in weekly nominal capacity from 16,400 TEUs to 10,386 TEUs, according to Xeneta. Vessel utilization on the trade slipped to just over 80% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 87% in the third quarter. Xeneta said the service cuts are expected to tighten the market and leave shippers with fewer options.
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Latin America

Air

  • Valentine’s Day flower demand drove a sharp increase in air cargo activity from Bogota and Quito, with charter capacity rising from 19% of total cargo capacity in week one of 2026 to 45% by week six. Overall weekly capacity from the two hubs reached 30,000 tons in week six, up 16% year-over-year.
  • Airlines and airports worldwide added flights and capacity to meet Valentine’s Day flower demand. Network Airline Management transported 3,100 tons from Nairobi to Liege, where the airport handled 13,850 tons over four weeks. LATAM Cargo moved more than 24,000 tons from Colombia and Ecuador across approximately 430 flights, while Avianca Cargo reported a 6% year-over-year increase to over 19,000 tons supported by nearly 320 flights. In Dubai, dnata processed 227,530 kg of flowers in five days.

Ocean

  • Carriers are resuming Panama Canal transits on select east-west services as conditions improve. Hapag-Lloyd said THE Alliance restored canal use on parts of its EC2 and EC6 services from January, while Ocean Network Express confirmed EC2 sailings would fully resume canal transits and said it was ending its Panama Canal contingency surcharge on US and Canadian exports. Panama Canal Authority data showed 44 booked vessels waiting to transit as of February 9, along with 12 non-booked ships, with average waits of four to five days for ships without reservations. Some carriers are still using rail and truck alternatives across Panama, though market participants report smoother cargo flows and stable freight rates on certain Americas trades.
  • CMA CGM deployed its 5,900 TEU vessel CMA CGM Fiordland as the first large containership to call at Puerto Antioquia, a new deep-water terminal on Colombia’s Caribbean coast. The facility is designed to handle up to 650,000 TEUs annually and accommodate vessels of up to 15,000 TEUs, while offering shorter inland connections to Medellín and Bogotá compared with other Atlantic ports. The development supports Colombia’s agricultural and container exports and expands CMA CGM’s presence in Latin America.
Asia-Pacific

Air

  • Asia’s air freight market entered February without the typical last minute surge ahead of Lunar New Year, as steady January exports kept aircraft utilization high and spread demand across several weeks. Mid-January volumes from Asia to Europe were up close to 20% year-over-year, while Asia to North America rose around 6%, with stronger growth from Southeast Asia and weaker flows from China and Hong Kong. Airlines redeployed freighter capacity across key corridors, helping keep spot rates stable, though some lanes recorded early February declines of $0.20 to $0.30 per kilogram. While space remained tight for late bookings out of China and Southeast Asia, the seasonal pressure was distributed rather than concentrated in a single spike.
  • The Asia-Pacific region recorded the strongest regional air freight growth in 2025, with demand rising 8.4% year-over-year. Asia–Europe and intra-Asia corridors showed double digit increases, while Asia–North America volumes softened amid shifting trade patterns. Globally, available capacity grew modestly and yields eased slightly but remained elevated, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
  • Asia’s air freight volumes rose 7% in January, supported by an earlier Lunar New Year, but the first year-over-year decline in China and Hong Kong eCommerce exports since 2022 signaled weakening underlying demand. Lower-value exports and China-US eCommerce flows fell sharply, while expanded capacity drove double-digit rate declines on Southeast Asia corridors. Xeneta indicated that clearer market direction may emerge after the first quarter.

Ocean

  • Ocean freight reliability at China origins has weakened ahead of Lunar New Year as carriers overbook sailings to meet minimum quantity commitments, increasing rolled cargo. Congestion is building at ports including Ningbo and Nansha, alongside restricted gate-in access, equipment shortages and inland logistics constraints. With factories and logistics networks restarting gradually, full normalization is not expected until early March.
  • Asia–US West Coast container rates have declined to early December levels amid muted trans-Pacific demand, with prices falling more than 20% week-over-week to about $1,900 per FEU. The National Retail Federation projects March import volumes will dip 5% month-over-month, and first-quarter demand is expected to trail year-ago levels by 7%. The pullback comes as carriers continue operating expanded fleet capacity heading into a pre-peak season lull.
Europe

Air

  • Emirates SkyCargo has added Liege Airport to its scheduled freighter network, marking its first new freighter destination of 2026. The carrier will operate five weekly freighters, adding 500 tonnes of cargo capacity per week. Located within the Amsterdam–Paris–Frankfurt production “golden triangle,” Liege recorded 14% cargo growth in 2025 and continues to strengthen its role as a major European freighter hub.
  • Brussels Airport reported more than 61,000 tons of cargo in January, up 3.5% year-over-year. Belly cargo increased 5.1%, express shipments rose 10% and trucked cargo grew more than 11%, with exports to Asia and Africa posting gains.

Ocean

  • Egyptian and Slovenian officials discussed establishing a maritime shipping line and expanding cooperation in maritime ports and aviation. The proposal would position Slovenia as a gateway for Egyptian exports to European Union markets, with discussions also covering activation of an air service agreement between the two countries. The talks form part of broader bilateral efforts to strengthen economic and transport cooperation.
  • Maersk’s APM Terminals and Eurogate will invest about €1 billion to modernise their container terminal in Bremerhaven. The upgrade is expected to increase annual handling capacity by approximately one million TEUs, raising total capacity to about four million TEUs per year.
India, the Middle East and Africa

Air

  • Emirates SkyCargo will introduce five weekly Boeing 777F freighter services to Liège, converting previous ad hoc flights into scheduled operations focused on temperature-sensitive healthcare cargo. Three of the weekly flights will connect Liège with Chicago O’Hare and Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai. The expansion strengthens cold-chain links between Europe, North America and the Middle East.
  • Magma Aviation and MidnightZulu have launched an additional scheduled service between Nairobi and Liège operating from January through May 2026. The new flight began on January 20 and complements Magma’s four existing Nairobi–Liège services. The added frequency is intended to support seasonal demand, particularly from Kenya’s horticultural sector during the winter peak.

Ocean

  • CMA CGM will restructure its West Africa Express service into three separate loops with the launch of WAX1 and WAX2 from late March. The existing service will be split to better match cargo flows between Asia, the Indian Subcontinent and West Africa, with the goal of improving schedule reliability and network coverage. Further details on port rotations and vessel deployment are expected closer to the launch.
  • The Inland Waterways Authority of India facilitated the transport of a 189.260-metric-ton over-dimensional cargo shipment via National Waterway–2 on the Brahmaputra River. The consignment moved from Diamond Harbour in West Bengal to Pandu in Assam and is destined for the Tata Semiconductor Assembly facility in Morigaon district. It is scheduled to be unloaded at Silghat before final delivery by road.
Customs Brokerage
  • The US and India agreed on an interim trade framework that immediately lowers some US tariffs on Indian imports and outlines further reductions if finalized. The US also rescinded an additional 25% tariff after India committed to halt Russian oil purchases, increase imports of US energy and expand defense cooperation. Under the framework, the US will reduce its reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 18% on certain Indian goods, while India will cut tariffs on US industrial and agricultural products and address trade barriers affecting medical devices and technology exports to expand market access and strengthen supply chains.
  • The United States signed an executive order on February 6 establishing a process to impose additional tariffs on imports from countries that directly or indirectly purchase goods or services from Iran that US persons are prohibited from trading. Under the order, the Secretary of Commerce will first assess whether a country has engaged in such activity, after which senior officials will determine whether tariffs should be applied, with the final decision resting with the president. The order took effect at 12:01 a.m. EST on February 7, allowing tariffs to be implemented immediately once findings are made.
  • The US and Taiwan signed a reciprocal trade agreement on February 12 to expand market access and two-way trade. Taiwan will eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods and address non-tariff barriers affecting motor vehicles, medical devices and pharmaceuticals. In return, the US will reduce tariffs on Taiwanese goods and apply the higher of either the US Most Favored Nation rate or a 15% rate that includes a reciprocal tariff under a 2025 executive order. The agreement underscores both sides’ intent to strengthen a more balanced trade relationship.
  • The US and Guatemala reached a trade agreement under CAFTA-DR that removes reciprocal tariffs on certain qualifying goods, including textiles and apparel, and caps tariffs on all other Guatemalan imports at 10%. In return, Guatemala agreed to streamline regulatory approvals, address non-tariff barriers affecting US industrial, agricultural, medical and technology exports, and enhance cooperation on trade facilitation, supply chain security and enforcement. The agreement will enter into force 30 days after both sides complete their legal procedures.
  • The US and Bangladesh signed a reciprocal trade agreement on January 9 that maintains a 19% US tariff on most Bangladeshi imports, while granting a 0% rate for select products listed in Annex III to Executive Order 14346. In return, Bangladesh will provide preferential market access for US industrial and agricultural goods, including machinery, medical devices, vehicles, technology equipment and key food products. Bangladesh also agreed to address non-tariff barriers by recognizing US safety, emissions, Food and Drug Administration and agricultural standards and removing import or licensing restrictions on US remanufactured goods.
  • The Consumer Product Safety Commission has published a non-exhaustive list of roughly 600 HTSUS numbers that are likely to require electronic submission of certificate of compliance information beginning July 8. Under the agency’s eFiling program, importers must electronically submit product identification, testing, manufacturing and certification details at the time of entry for all CPSC-regulated consumer products requiring certification, including de minimis shipments. The requirement takes effect July 8, 2026, and January 8, 2027, for goods entered from foreign-trade zones.
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This document is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice. Information herein was obtained from government, industry, and other public sources. It has not been independently verified by UPS and is subject to change. Recipient has sole responsibility for determining the usability of any information provided herein. Before recipient acts on the information, recipient should seek professional advice regarding its applicability to the recipient's specific circumstances.

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