Freight and Logistics News and Market Update
Week of April 30, 2025
Top Takeaways
Tariffs Continue to Disrupt Global Trade: Volume Drops, Carrier Cuts and Policy Shifts
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- Drewry estimates that global container shipping volume will fall 1% this year due to rising reciprocal tariffs driven by US trade policies. Companies are relocating production away from China to countries with lower tariff exposure, contributing to cautious global trade behavior and weaker shipping demand.
- Ocean carriers are reducing capacity on China–US trade routes, with a 54% drop in bookings attributed to ongoing US-China tariffs.
- Read About Recent Tariffs
- China and Germany have signed the UN Convention on the Contract for the International Carriage of Goods by Rail, aiming to unify legal rules for rail freight across Europe and Asia. This move simplifies cross-border transport by replacing the dual CIM and SMGS regimes with a single framework, enhancing efficiency, reducing costs and boosting legal certainty.
Regions
North America
Air
- Geopolitical tensions and tariff disruptions are rippling across the US, leading to steep declines at container ports and air freight hubs. Scheduled arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles are down roughly 30% year over year for the first week of May, while air freight volumes have fallen by a similar margin amid a sharp drop in orders for new Chinese goods. With the de minimis exemption set to expire on May 2, many importers appear to be holding off on new shipments, relying on existing inventory as they await a more sustainable long-term resolution between the US and Chinese governments.
- Following recent tensions with Boeing, including the refusal to accept deliveries of new aircraft, China’s Ministry of Commerce has expressed a willingness to resume normal cooperation with US companies. The halted deliveries have disrupted expansion plans for multiple Chinese airlines, leaving approximately 50 Boeing jets in limbo. This shift in tone from Chinese officials signals an interest in restoring dialogue and reaching a more stable, long-term trade agreement.
- WestJet Cargo is doubling its Calgary–Seoul service from three to six weekly flights starting May 19, 2025, to meet growing demand for air cargo and passenger transport between Canada and South Korea. Operated on WestJet’s Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the expanded route offers 130 tons of weekly cargo capacity and reflects WestJet’s commitment to supporting cross-border trade. The milestone also marks the first anniversary of the Canada–South Korea connection, reinforcing Calgary’s position as a key global logistics hub.
Ocean
- Following a 30% drop in China–US bookings driven by new administration tariffs, Hapag-Lloyd has shifted to smaller vessels on trans-Pacific routes rather than cancel sailings, maintaining service continuity with partner Maersk. While bookings from Southeast Asia have increased, overall volumes to the US West Coast are expected to decline sharply, with the Port of Los Angeles projecting a 34% year-over-year drop in early May. Although the White House may ease tariffs to de-escalate trade tensions, it remains uncertain how quickly shippers will return.
- Cosco Shipping has strongly opposed new US port fees targeting Chinese carriers and Chinese-built vessels, warning that the policy could distort global trade and add 8–10 USD million in costs per voyage. Set to take effect in October, the rule will subject carriers like Cosco and OOCL to significantly higher fees than competitors, prompting speculation that Ocean Alliance members may reassign vessels to reduce exposure. While Cosco and CMA CGM deny immediate changes to their alliance structure, analysts say network shifts are likely if the financial burden proves unsustainable.
- Ocean carriers are reducing capacity on China–US trade routes, with a 54% drop in bookings attributed to ongoing US-China tariffs. Services like Zim’s ZX2 and MSC’s Orient have been suspended, contributing to nearly 18% of trans-Pacific capacity being blanked in May. This has led to a shift in focus to Southeast Asia, where bookings are rising. While these cuts help stabilize freight rates, there are concerns that a sudden demand rebound could challenge carriers' ability to restore services promptly and maintain reliability.
Latin America
Air
- Delta Air Lines and LATAM Airlines have expanded their joint venture to include Argentina, aiming to enhance air cargo transport between the US, Canada and Argentina. This expansion provides cargo customers with access to over 200 destinations and offers integrated solutions across both passenger and freighter aircraft. The agreement has secured final regulatory approval and is pending evaluation by Argentina's National Commission for the Defense of Competition.
- Aeromexico and My Freighter have established an interline partnership to expand cargo connectivity between Mexico and Central Asia. Effective April 1, 2025, the agreement grants My Freighter access to Aeromexico's hubs in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey, while Aeromexico gains access to Central Asia via My Freighter’s Tashkent hub and its road feeder service (RFS) trucking network. This collaboration follows My Freighter's similar partnership with American Airlines in 2024.
Ocean
- A new direct maritime route between Zhuhai, China and the Brazilian ports of Santana (Amapá) and Salvador (Bahia) was launched last week, aiming to boost trade and logistics between the two nations. The connection is expected to reduce transit times, enhance access to emerging markets in northern and northeastern Brazil and strengthen economic ties between China and Brazil.
- Chinese regulators are closely scrutinizing the potential sale of CK Hutchison’s global port assets, including holdings in Panama, warning that the transaction must not proceed without formal approval. Authorities emphasized that any attempt to bypass national security review processes would violate Chinese law. The scrutiny comes amid heightened geopolitical sensitivity around the Panama Canal and broader US–China trade relations.
Asia-Pacific
Air
- As trade tensions rise and regulatory uncertainty looms, 79% of air cargo capacity agreements in Q1 were for three months or less, reflecting shippers’ growing preference for short-term contracts. Freight forwarders are increasingly leaning on the spot market due to volatile pricing and hesitancy to commit long term. Concerns over potential changes to the de minimis exemption for eCommerce imports from China have also contributed to disruptions in cargo volumes and long-term planning.
- Airports in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions are set to receive a 240 USD billion infrastructure investment, with 136 USD billion dedicated to upgrading existing airports (Brownfield Development) and 104 USD billion for constructing new airports (Greenfield Development). This investment aims to expand capacity to accommodate an additional 1.24 billion passengers and 71 million tons of cargo, addressing the increasing demand for air travel and cargo services. The initiative is expected to significantly enhance regional infrastructure and support socio-economic development.
- Cargo freighter charters are being canceled as eCommerce volumes from China to the US have dropped approximately 50% since mid-April, driven by the implementation of US tariffs up to 145% on many imports and the impending end of the de minimis exemption on May 2. While certain tech products like smartphones remain exempt from tariffs, the overall market uncertainty has led many freight forwarders to shift capacity to regions with steadier demand, such as Latin America. Additionally, spot market airfreight rates have declined recently, reflecting the reduced demand.
Ocean
- Global shipping is experiencing significant volatility due to US President Trump's renewed tariff policies, particularly aimed toward China. These policies have led to fluctuating freight rates, underutilized vessels and changing trade routes. While there was a temporary surge in demand following a tariff pause, long-term expectations indicate a major decline in China-US trade and a shift toward Southeast Asia and Latin America. Shipping firms are adapting to these changes, but industry experts caution that these adjustments may require time.
- Southeast Asia's major transshipment hubs, notably Malaysia's Port Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) and Singapore, are undergoing significant transformations as shipping alliances like the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd realign their networks. PTP is enhancing its capacity by acquiring new quay cranes and rubber-tyred gantry cranes to accommodate growing volumes. Concurrently, Singapore is advancing its Tuas port development and expanding value-added services to reinforce its leadership in maritime logistics. The region's transshipment landscape is further evolving with new port projects in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, intensifying competition among these strategic gateways.
- Uncertainty over the US administration shifting tariff policies is delaying the signing of annual trans-Pacific service contracts by at least two weeks, as importers hesitate to finalize volume commitments amid trade concerns. A standoff remains between carriers and large retailers over pricing, with a $100 USD-per-FEU gap. Blank sailings are helping keep spot rates elevated despite falling Chinese bookings. If contract talks with major retailers drag on much longer, experts warn it could trigger a rate spike in May as shippers rush to finalize agreements.
Ground
- China and Germany have signed the UN Convention on the Contract for the International Carriage of Goods by Rail, aiming to unify legal rules for rail freight across Europe and Asia. This move simplifies cross-border transport by replacing the dual CIM and SMGS regimes with a single framework, enhancing efficiency, reducing costs and boosting legal certainty. The Convention, which will enter into force six months after five states ratify it, is also expected to support climate goals by promoting rail freight, a more environmentally friendly alternative to road transport. The Netherlands and Togo have also signed the Convention.
- Chongqing has launched its first scheduled freight train service to Central Asia, with two trains per month running to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan in about 12 days. The route is expected to cut transit times by 30% and reduce costs for local manufacturers. The service features fixed schedules, priority customs clearance and supports regional trade ahead of the Second China-Central Asia Summit in 2025.
Europe
Air
- The director general of IATA has announced that the strict targets for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in Europe are unrealistic and not achievable. With SAF still too expensive for widespread use, IATA argues current benchmarks cannot be met without major investment in infrastructure.
- Lufthansa Cargo is increasing its weekly capacity to Argentina and Brazil, adding an extra weekly Boeing 777 freighter flight covering Buenos Aires and Curitiba. This expansion brings the total to four weekly flights—two each to Buenos Aires and Curitiba—and includes stops in Viracopos and Montevideo. The move aims to capitalize on the growing demand for raw materials and agricultural products from South America, as well as the rising need for high-value imported goods like machinery, electronics and automobiles.
- Nationwide power outages affected Spain and Portugal yesterday, impacting communications and transportation across the area. Airports, trains and road traffic was stalled as the outage lasted roughly ten hours before progress was made on reactivating substations across the two countries. The exact cause of the blackouts has yet to be determined but early reports stated extreme temperature variations could be partly to blame.
Ocean
- Odfjell’s chemical tanker Bow Orion completed a near-zero-emission Atlantic crossing from the US Gulf Coast to the Netherlands, powered by sustainable biofuel and four suction sails. The voyage saw a greenhouse gas emissions intensity reduction of over 80 percent and used AI-supported weather routing to further optimize efficiency.
India, the Middle East and Africa
Air
- Qatar Airways Cargo, IAG Cargo and MASkargo have announced a new joint cargo network to enhance air cargo services. The partnership aims to streamline operations, improve transit times and support future growth. It is expected to strengthen cooperation between the carriers and significantly enhance the customer experience. The agreement is subject to regulatory approval before full integration can begin.
- Emirates SkyCargo has announced plans to integrate five hydrogen-powered trucks into its fleet to enhance ground operations between Dubai International Airport (DXB) and Dubai World Central (DWC). This initiative aims to reduce carbon emissions and underscores the airline's commitment to sustainability. The trucks, capable of carrying up to 28 tons of cargo, will be refueled at dedicated hydrogen stations in Dubai and are expected to enter service by early 2026.
- Royal Air Maroc is expanding its cargo operations through a fleet upgrade that includes new Boeing 767 freighters and a broader aircraft order totaling 30 planes. The airline will also adopt digital booking tools Cargo.one and CargoAi to streamline reservations and improve shipment visibility as part of its broader modernization strategy.
Ocean
- French shipping line CMA CGM has announced it will buy a 35% stake in Egypt’s October Dry Port (ODP) to strengthen regional connectivity and support supply chain development. Strategically linked to major seaports, the inland port is set to become a key logistics hub near Cairo. CMA CGM already operates the Tahya Misr terminal at Port of Alexandria and sees this project as an opportunity to expand its container operations.
- Drewry estimates that global container shipping volume will fall 1% this year due to rising reciprocal tariffs driven by US trade policies. Companies are relocating production away from China to countries with lower tariff exposure, contributing to cautious global trade behavior and weaker shipping demand.
- Bangladesh and the World Bank have signed a partnership for USD 850 million in total to develop its Bay Terminal deep seaport and create more jobs in the country. The port development project, costing approximately $650 USD million, will modernize Bangladesh’s ocean export landscape and increase capacity while cutting transportation costs and optimizing turnaround time. The Bay terminal project is estimated to handle approximately 36% of Bangladesh’s container traffic, which will further improve the country’s competitiveness.
Ground
- Quiqup has announced the expansion of its logistics service in Saudi Arabia following its success in the UAE market. The firm is well positioned to offer customers with comprehensive logistics fulfillment solutions including sorting, storage, packaging and delivery which will improve the overall eCommerce landscape in Saudi Arabia. This strategic move reinforces the company’s commitment to offer an enhanced services to customers in Saudi Arabia.
- Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC and Riyadh-based Noon have partnered to launch a 15-minute delivery service through the ADNOC Distribution app. Noon’s delivery hubs will be placed at ADNOC’s 551 retail service stations and 373 Oasis convenience stores across the UAE. The collaboration integrates ADNOC’s retail footprint with Noon’s AI-powered logistics platform to enhance inventory visibility and offer faster, more convenient shopping options for customers.
Customs Brokerage
- US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced in the April 16, 2025, Customs Bulletin and Decisions that Cub Cadet utility vehicles will now be classified as vehicles primarily designed to transport people (HTSUS 8703.21.01, 2.5% duty) instead of goods (HTSUS 8704.31.0020, 25% duty). This reclassification, outlined in ruling HQ H339953, modifies ruling NY N309547 and will apply to entries or withdrawals starting June 16. CBP determined the change based on the vehicles' design features—such as two bucket seats and a focus on passenger safety and comfort—indicating they are intended more for transporting people than cargo.
- Due to higher tariffs, customs brokers are encouraged to work with their banks to ensure ACH debits from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) can cover increased duty amounts. Brokers may need to raise their debit caps and ensure accounts are properly funded to avoid debit failures, which could lead to removal from the ACH Debit program and potential penalties. Additional tips for importers moving to their own ACH Debit setup include authorizing CBP debits, providing the CBP Customer ID to the bank, setting appropriate dollar/transaction limits and monitoring ACH reports closely.
- US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has issued a Federal Register notice to implement US President Trump’s April 2 Executive Order ending de minimis treatment for goods from China and Hong Kong, effective at 12:01 AM ET on May 2. Under this directive, no duty drawback will be available for articles subject to these new duties, and several CBP regulations related to low-value shipments are temporarily suspended. Beginning May 2, goods valued at 800 USD or less from China and Hong Kong entering the US through international mail will be subject either to a 120% ad valorem duty or a 100 USD specific duty per shipment, which will increase to 200 USD per shipment on June 1. Additionally, international carriers transporting these goods must hold an international carrier bond to ensure duties are properly paid.
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This document is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice. Information herein was obtained from government, industry, and other public sources. It has not been independently verified by UPS and is subject to change. Recipient has sole responsibility for determining the usability of any information provided herein. Before recipient acts on the information, recipient should seek professional advice regarding its applicability to the recipient's specific circumstances.
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