2026 Q2 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends

• Global Air Cargo had an aggregate demand growth of (+11%) YoY in Q1 2026, with March volume down (-4%) YoY from 2025.⁴
• Middle East and South Asia (MESA) had the most impact on YoY volume dip in March (-21%), with Africa (-13%), Europe (-5%) and APAC (-4%) the other regions that dipped.⁴
• February 2026 Year-to-Date (YTD) demand (+9.3%) was driven by Africa (+20%), Middle East (+13.2%), APAC (+11.4%), Europe (+6.7%), North America (+5.7%) and LATAM (-0.6%), the only region that contracted.²
• Of the major routes, Africa–Asia (+61.9%) led the YoY growth. Middle East–Asia (+24%) EU-Asia (+13.1%), Europe-Middle East(+9.3%), Asia-North America and Intra-Asia (+9.1%) & Europe-North America (+5.7%) routes added to the overall+11.6%YoY growth in February.²
  
  Implications: Global demand growth dipped in March on the Middle East disruption and has the likelihood to continue into Q2 with its extension.

Sources: 2) IATA 4) WorldACD

• Global capacity growth which was expected to outpace demand in 2026 contracted to +1.1% Q1 on the Middle East disruption, and the Middle East lanes mostly impacted. EU-MESA (-6%), MESA-EU (0%), MESA-APAC (-3%) and the “Silk Road” lanes with the most gains, EU-APAC (+19%), APAC-EU (+20%), APAC-ISMEA (+2%), making up most of the modest international capacity growth.³
• Widebody belly capacity dipped (-2.4%) while Freighter capacity grew +3.7% in Q1 on the back of the contraction to belly hold capacity from carriers mostly from the Middle East.³
• Global air cargo rates had an aggregate drive up of +16% YoY in Q1 2026 with a (+12%) increase in March, a (+5%) in February and a dip of (-1%) in January.⁴
  
  Implications: The Middle East disruption with the attendant capacity constraints and jet fuel price hikes drove up rates on the Middle East lanes and with spill over to others.

Sources: 3) Accenture Cargo 4) WorldACD

• Middle East disruption is increasing costs and constraining capacity, supporting higher airfreight rates while pressuring demand outlooks.⁴
• Global GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised downward from the previous more optimistic view (+3.3%) to (+3.1%) on the Middle East disruption.⁵
• Global Manufacturing PMI contracted in March to (51.3) from the February (51.9) recorded growth. A 0.6% decline but still above the neutral point.⁵
  
  Implications: The impacts of the Middle East disruption on the air cargo sector are expected to be short-lived. If prolonged, it has the likelihood of adding to the prevailing uncertainties in the market of tariffs barriers & the e-commerce headwinds.

Sources: 4) WorldACD 5) Trading Economics

• Mexican truck exports to the US fell YoY by 5.9% in March signaling a sharp pullback in cross-border equipment flows.¹
• Healthcare shippers face sustained LTL cost pressure in Q2 as fuel surcharges and capacity constraints limit pricing flexibility, particularly for replenishment and regional distribution lanes.²
  
  Implications: Cross‑border softening in equipment flows and as healthcare shippers seek solutions to ongoing LTL cost pressures, experienced carriers who can shift priorities will find themselves in advantageous positions to add value in the transportation industry.

Sources: 1) freightwaves.com 2) chrobinson.net

• CASS data shows sequential shipment stabilization but continued rise in expenditures, reinforcing that costs are no longer tightly linked to demand growth.³
• As e-commerce growth slows, other sectors are taking on greater importance; one of the most significant is high-technology manufacturing, particularly semiconductors and hardware linked to artificial intelligence.³
  
  Implications: Freight costs are rising independently of volume as shipments stabilize, while slowing e‑commerce growth is shifting logistics demand and carrier opportunities towards other industries and supply chains.

Sources: 3) stattimes.com

• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported inflation shock driven by energy is already visible in CPI, with US CPI March +0.9% Month-over-Month (MoM) and +3.3% YoY. Gasoline is also a major driver, up +21.2% MoM.⁴
• S&P Global’s Mexico Manufacturing PMI data for indicated cost pressures intensified again, driven by tariffs, currency effects and energy inflation, reinforcing upward cost risk in Mexico origin freight.⁵
• The USMCA (formerly NAFTA) six-year review is actively underway with US, Mexico, and Canada already in pre-review negotiations and bilateral talks. The USMCA mandatory six-year review process written into USMCA formally begins July 1, 2026.⁶
  
  Implications: Rising energy costs and policy uncertainty from the USMCA review are increasing near‑term cost pressure across North American and cross‑border freight supply chains.

Sources: 4) bls.gov 5) spglobal.com 6) congress.gov

• US apparel imports fell 7.2% year over year in early 2026 as retailers manage inventory and demand remains inconsistent.¹
• Household goods imports remain weak due to the housing slowdown and inflation pressure on consumers.²
• Demand varies by sector, with stronger performance in premium segments and pressure in cost-sensitive categories.¹
• Recent disruptions highlight how quickly conditions can shift. The market has experienced multiple unexpected shocks in recent years, reinforcing volatility.⁸
  
  Implications: Uneven demand limits volume recovery and keeps shipment patterns inconsistent. Shippers may continue to see stable port conditions, but ordering and replenishment decisions vary by sector.

Sources: 1) Cass Transportation Index Report March 2026 2) Journal of Commerce, April 7, 2026 8) Journal of Commerce, April 6, 2026

• Idle fleet remains low, indicating high vessel utilization.³
• 63–75 vessels (340,000–412,000 TEU) are unavailable due to disruption, reducing effective supply.³
• Longer routing and diversions are reducing effective capacity across key trades.³
• Market uncertainty is influencing contracting behavior. Some shippers are delaying decisions or adjusting contract strategies due to unpredictable market conditions.⁸
  
  Implications: Effective capacity remains constrained, supporting rate stability. Carriers continue managing space through network adjustments, keeping pressure on availability across key lanes.
  ​
  Source: 3) Alphaliner 13-2026 8) Journal of Commerce, April 6, 2026

• Middle East disruption continues to impact global routing and service design. Vessel diversions and network changes are affecting capacity and transit times.⁴
• Closure risk around the Strait of Hormuz is driving cargo re-routing. Carriers are shifting flows through alternative hubs such as Colombo, Sohar and Khor Fakkan.⁵
• Fuel and operational costs continue to influence pricing. Surcharges are applied variably across trades depending on market conditions.⁶
• Fuel cost recovery is lagging, with a stronger impact expected in Q2 as contracts adjust.⁷
• Shippers are showing increased sensitivity to rising costs.⁸
  
  Implications: Routing and transit times remain variable and total landed costs continue to increase. Shippers may need to plan for flexibility and review full cost structures beyond base rates.

Sources: 4) Alphaliner 14-2026 5) Journal of Commerce, April 15, 2026 6) Journal of Commerce, March 18, 2026 7) Journal of Commerce, April 10, 2026 8) Journal of Commerce, April 6, 2026

• US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has launched Phase 1 of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) functionality in ACE to begin processing refunds of IEEPA-related tariffs following federal court orders invalidating those duties.¹
• New CBP guidance expands Section 232 tariffs on aluminum, steel and copper imports, with additional duties of 10–50% effective April 6, 2026 impacting sourcing conversations with customers.²
• Section 301 is emerging as the primary pathway for future tariff actions. New Section 301 investigations could enable the US to re‑impose or expand tariffs through durable, country‑ and product‑specific measures.³
  
  Implications: Importers should expect phased IEEPA refunds with continued CBP scrutiny and the need for disciplined trade compliance and cash‑flow planning.

Source: 1) CSMS 2) Whitehouse 3) USTR

• United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will face a trilateral review in July 2026, with outcomes ranging from a 16‑year extension to annual reviews through 2036 if consensus is not reached. Any party may also choose to withdraw with six-month notice. which would effectively end the agreement and likely shift trade to bilateral arrangements.⁴
• Consumer Product Safety Commissions (CPSC) Certificate of Compliance e‑Filing becomes mandatory on July 8, 2026, requiring certificate data to be submitted electronically via the PGA message set at the time of entry. CPSC has published an updated list of roughly 600 affected HTS codes, but there is no change to product scope or safety standards, only the filing method.⁵
  
  Implications: Importers should evaluate USMCA sourcing strategies ahead of the 2026 review and ensure CPSC certificate data is entry‑ready and electronically transmittable by July 8, 2026, to avoid delays or holds.

Sources: 4) USTR 5) CPSC

• Canada is tightening its customs valuation rules to clarify which transactions count as the true “sale for export.” Consignment deals, certain non‑traditional sales and some Canada‑to‑Canada sales can no longer be used to determine customs value, meaning some importers may need to use a different valuation method. These changes mainly affect businesses with multi‑step supply chains or Canadian‑based purchasing entities.⁶
• Effective Dec. 26, 2025, Canada will apply a 25% surtax on imports of certain steel derivative goods like fasteners, wire, mesh, chains and structural components, for commercial-use shipments only.⁷
  
  Implications: Importers should issue comments to CBSA on valuation and verify steel derivative goods for potential surtax implications.

Sources: 6) cbsa.ca7) cbsa.ca