2025 Q3 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends
August 2025 - Updated for Q3, our industry professionals compiled freight and logistics trends and market updates for 2025 to help your business stay prepared for the future.
Global Macroeconomic Trends
Global GDP forecasts have decreased from March projections, along with industrial production, while export projections have increased, and retail sales have contracted compared to March figures.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators Summary
Key Macroeconomic Indicators Summary
- Real export projections have been revised up to 1.93% globally, with the US down nearly 2% and China moving from -2.5% to flat growth.
- Industrial production remained flat from previous projections at 2.02%, with slight growth from Europe and China, while APAC projections declined.
- Retail sales forecasts decreased from March projections to 1.39%, with US growth declining by approximately 0.5% and growth coming from China.
Source: IHS-Markit: July 2025
Real GDP Quarterly Growth 2022-2025
Real GDP Quarterly Growth 2022-2025
2025 Real GDP Forecast
2025 Real GDP Forecast
- World GDP growth forecasts for 2025 decreased slightly from March, with July projections showing global growth of 2.40%.
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
- Global manufacturing PMI returned to growth in June after a slight contraction in the previous month, driven by higher-than-normal inventory buildup as tariffs and global trade uncertainty continue to impact long-term planning.
- US manufacturing PMI showed growth again in June (52.9), reaching its highest level since the first half of 2022. New orders improved for the sixth consecutive month as inventory buildup continues.
- Eurozone PMI reached 49.5 in June, a slight increase from May and the highest level in nearly three years.
- China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June, following a dip into contraction territory in May.
Sources: 1) WorldACD, 2) Accenture Cargo, 3) IATA, 4) EIA
Quarterly CPI Inflation Rate
Quarterly CPI Inflation Rate
- The 2025 global inflation rate forecast fell to 3.20% in July, down from 3.51% in March.
- The US inflation rate forecast decreased to 2.74% in July, down from the March projection of 3.20%, with slightly higher inflation expected in the second half of 2025.
- The EU inflation rate forecast decreased to 2.01% in July, down slightly from 2.31% in March, with lower inflation projected in the second half of the year.
- China’s inflation projection was revised down to 0.13% in July, from 0.57% in March, with higher inflation expected to impact Q4.
Sources: 1) WorldACD, 2) Accenture Cargo, 3) IATA, 4) EIA
Air Freight Industry Update
Global air cargo demand grew by +3% in the first half of 2025, with capacity keeping pace and will likely surpass demand in the coming months. Average spot rates were up +0.4% year over year during the same period.
Air Freight Demand vs. Capacity
Air Freight Demand vs. Capacity
- Demand growth could face a tougher second half as market conditions are showing impacts from tariff and trade uncertainty.
- Capacity growth appears steady despite global trade shifts and increased regulatory and trade hurdles.
- Global demand expanded +2% YoY in June after averaging ~+5% growth over the previous 3 months.
Sources: 1) Xeneta, 2) Accenture Cargo
* IATA Demand (WorldACD June)
** Accenture Demand does not capture low-value de Minimis eCommerce Demand
Air Freight Industry Rates
Air Freight Industry Rates
- Average global air cargo rates fell -1% YoY, +2.0% Month-over-Month (MoM) in June after declining the previous month.
- Slower demand growth and capacity surpassing demand, driven by market hesitation amid disruptions to global trade from de minimis regulations and tariff changes, will help keep prices relatively flat MoM.
Source: WorldACD
Air Freight Industry Trends
Global demand growth has shown resilience despite continued geopolitical tension and global trade negotiations, but further volatility is likely in the coming months as deadlines approach on yet to be finalized deals.
- Global Air Cargo demand has grown +3% YoY through the 1H 2025, but showed signs of slowing in June growing just +1%.1
- The outlook for the second half remains slightly less optimistic as tariff deadlines approach and continued limits on de minimis exemptions from Hong Kong and China.1
- APAC demand continues to lead all regions growing +8.3% YTD (May) followed by LATAM and North America at +7.2% and +4.8% respectively.2
- APAC-ISMEA has outpaced all regional lanes +19% YTD (May) with LATAM-EU (+13%) APAC-EU (+12%) EU-NA (+11%) and APAC-NA (+8%) all showing strong 1H growth.3
Implications: Demand growth will likely be slightly more muted in the second half of 2025 as the impacts of global trade uncertainty begin to catch up with the market.
Sources: 1) Xenata, 2) IATA, 3) Accenture Cargo
- Capacity growth has kept pace with demand through the first half of the year, up +3.8% YTD with APAC-ISMEA (+17%), EU-APAC (+17%), ISMEA-EU (+12%) and EU-APAC (+8%) making up most of the international capacity growth.3
- Widebody belly capacity has outpaced Freighter capacity growth, +4.2% vs. +3.5% YTD, with Belly capacity expected to significantly outpace freighter growth for the remainder of 2025.3
- Average rates are relatively flat compared to the 1H of 2024, growing +0.5%.4
- Spot rates have declined YoY for two consecutive months (May-June) as capacity overtook demand for the first time in over a year and a half.1
Implications: Rates may continue flat or decline as demand volatility is likely in the second half with capacity growth expected to continue.
Sources: 1) Xenata, 3) Accenture Cargo, 4) WorldACD
- Tariff uncertainty continues to impact the market, but more deals seem to be solidifying with Japan confirming an agreement has been reached and progress reported on negotiations with the EU.6,7
- Global GDP growth has been revised down with decreased expectations for the US, while EU/APAC remained flat and forecasts for China have improved.5
- Global Manufacturing PMI bounced back above the neutral 50.0 in June, with the US (52.9) and Eurozone (49.5) manufacturing PMI reaching their highest level in years.5
Implications: Tariff impacts will continue to create volatility as negotiations with most US trade partners are still in process. Some positive numbers from recent PMI reporting and inflation projections point toward optimism for a more settled market over the third and fourth quarters of 2025.
Sources: 5) IHS Markit, 6) The Loadstar, 7) Bloomberg
North American Air Freight Industry Trends
Tariff unpredictability remains the key disruptor impacting business decision making.
- Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Transportation Equipment manufacturing sector is showing softening sales and consumer demand for the remainder of 2025 due to erratic US trade policy.1
- TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index forecasts that their LTL rate index will increase for another quarter, as pricing discipline by carriers remains firm.2
Implications: Manufacturers are feeling the effects of weak consumer demand, forcing LTL carriers to focus heavily on their rate and cost strategy in the marketplace.
Sources: 1) ismworld, 2) yahoofinance
- A new paradigm of endless disruptions—geopolitical, trade policies, and weather—across supply chains is influencing logistical activity by shippers and carriers.3
- Agility is becoming a permanent shift in how SMBs approach their supply chains, with flexibility and quick decision-making emerging as key components of a resilient business strategy.4
- A bevy of M&A activity has hit the pharmaceutical logistics industry, as businesses seek to create integrated, end-to-end custom solutions and scale their reach.5
Implications: Businesses and carriers are collaborating to deliver resilient supply chain solutions in the new normal of complex disruptions.
Sources: 3) freightwaves, 4) Freightos, 5) stattimes
- The US Bureau of Labor Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported the tariff impacts of duty-affected commodities, with inflation rising to 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% the prior month.6
- The Port of Los Angeles saw cargo volumes rise following a decline in May, yet the impact of new US administration tariffs and resulting uncertainties continues to negatively affect importers and retailers—and could adversely impact Christmas season sales.7
Implications: Tariffs are here to stay, and freight forwarders can help shippers manage them by staying abreast of regulatory changes, developing efficient routes, and supporting effective strategic planning.
Ocean Freight Industry Update
Rate levels are expected to decline further in the second half of 2025 as the underlying overcapacity in the market mitigates the impact of disruptions.
Demand vs. Capacity
Demand vs. Capacity
- There were only slight revisions to forecasted supply and demand in Drewry’s FY2025 outlook QoQ.1
- NRF’s Global Port Tracker shows US imports rose 2% in July compared to last year. However, from August to November, sharp declines are expected, ranging from 10% to 21% year-over-year.2
- The USTR’s proposal to charge Chinese carriers and China-built ships at US ports, starting in October, may trigger a shift in carrier networks. Chinese-built vessels could be moved to other trade lanes and replaced with South Korean or Japanese ships, potentially causing short-term capacity gaps and port slowdowns.1
Sources: 1) Drewry Container Forecaster, 2) National Retail Federation
Rates
Rates
- Drewry sees the market in a cyclical downturn, with any rate spikes likely short-lived and caused by disruptions, not strong demand.1
- Drewry expects East-West container rates to drop about 10% in the second half of the year due to growing oversupply.1
- The forecast remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks and the chance that carriers may cut capacity sharply to slow-falling rates.1
Sources: 1) Drewry Container Forecaster
Ocean Freight Industry Drivers
The on-again, off-again tariffs from the US administration, along with persistent congestion in Asia and Europe, are complicating the global supply and demand balance.
- Severe congestion at North European ports (Antwerp, Hamburg, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven) is causing berthing delays, high yard utilization (>92%), and growing transit times.1
- Inland operations are heavily strained, with carriers reporting long delays for truck and barge transport; some terminals have paused empty container redelivery.1
- Irregular vessel arrivals—exacerbated by routings around the Cape of Good Hope, reshuffled alliance networks, labor unrest, and strong demand in the Asia–Europe trade—are adding to the pressure.2
Implications: Carriers are adding record capacity on Asia–Europe routes to meet demand. But blank sailings and skipped ports may cause service disruptions. Shippers should book early to secure space.1
- After a tariff-driven slowdown in shipments from China to the US in April, capacity was pushed into the trade starting in May in anticipation of a demand surge.3
- Now, carriers are pulling back on capacity deployment as demand has faltered and rate levels are declining.3
- Starting in August, capacity from Asia will drop 6.2% to the US West Coast and 1.7% to the East Coast. Carriers are cutting space through blank sailings, smaller ships and service suspensions.3
Implications: Tariff uncertainty is making it harder to balance supply and demand. With limited vessel flexibility, shippers may face delays and service disruptions.
Source: 3) JOC
- Starting October 2025, USTR fees could add about $180 per FEU for non-Chinese carriers and $511 per FEU for Chinese carriers, according to Drewry.4
- To avoid passing these additional fees on to shippers—and risking a loss of competitiveness—it is likely that carriers will remove China-built vessels from US trades wherever possible.4
- Drewry estimates about 75 China-built vessels may be replaced with South Korean or Japanese ships. This could cause temporary gaps, schedule changes or port rotation shifts.4
Implications: A major fleet reshuffle could cut capacity, disrupt schedules and affect service reliability, creating market shifts and possible rate volatility.
Source: 4) Drewry Container Forecaster
Customs Brokerage & Trade Compliance Trends
Evolving Trade Policies and Tariff Updates: Impacts on International Trade
- Aluminum Derivatives (June 28): Imports missing smelt and cast country-of-origin info must be labeled “UN” and will automatically incur a 200% Section 232 duty. If not on the invoice, “UN” is applied by default.1
- FDA-Regulated Products (July 9): All imports under FDA oversight regardless of value, must be submitted for review prior to entry.3
- Tariff Expansion (Aug 1): Up to 40% duties may apply to imports from 20+ countries unless trade deals are updated.2
Implications: Importers are seeing significant cost increases and compliance burdens. Importers should prepare for stricter paperwork for aluminum and FDA imports.
Sources: 1) CSMS #65340246, 2) The White House, 3) strtrade
- Steel TRQs (Effective June 27): Temporary quotas apply to five steel categories from non-FTA countries. Imports within limits need shipment-specific permits; excess imports face a 50% surtax plus existing duties.4
- Starting August 1, 2025, TRQs will be extended to FTA countries (except the U.S. and Mexico) and reduced for non-FTA steel imports.5
- A new Order (SOR/2025-147) expands the scope of products eligible for remission of duties paid or payable under the China and US surtax orders.6
- CBSA Compliance Focus (July 2025): Semi-annual verifications will now include imports subject to China and U.S. surtaxes.7
Implications: Canada is adjusting its regulations and tightening oversight. Importers of steel products under China and US surtax orders should prepare for increased CBSA scrutiny.
Sources: 4) canada.ca, 5) canada.ca, 6) gazette.gc.ca, 7) cbsa-asfc.gc.ca
- UFLPA Expansion: The Entity List now includes 68 entities, increasing forced labor scrutiny. Importers must prove compliance, especially in textiles, electronics, and aluminum, as the EU and Canada pursue similar laws.9
- IPR Enforcement (July 2025): CBP is ramping up efforts, seizing 32M+ counterfeit goods in FY2024 and modernizing enforcement with automation and better digital tools for rights holders.
- AI Integration: CBP is using AI-driven analytics to boost security, adding UFLPA-specific upgrades to systems like ACE and the Advanced Trade Analytics Platform to spot evasion patterns.8,10
Implications: Global enforcement on forced labor and IP is tightening. Importers are turning to AI for supply chain mapping, traceability, and automated risk detection.
Global Logistics & Distribution Highlight
Policy uncertainty and warehouse automation are reshaping the logistics industry
Contract Logistics Market Growth
Contract logistics market continues to outpace projected global GDP (2025-2026 YoY 3.3%).²
Tariff & Policy Change Pressure
Tariff & Policy Change Pressure
- Ongoing US tariff policy uncertainty continues to disrupt global trade strategies.
- In response, multinational shippers and importers are increasing their use of bonded warehouses to delay duties and gain flexibility in rerouting goods.1
Implications: Contract logistics providers are seeing rising demand from global importers for customs-compliant warehousing, such as bonded warehouse and foreign trade zones, and value-added services.
Source: 1) US National Industrial Report
Warehouse Rent & Vacancy Trends
- The national industrial vacancy rate rose to 7.1%, up 10 basis points from the historical pre-pandemic average of 7.0%.2
- In Atlanta, vacancy reached 8.9%, while average rent grew 6% from last quarter to $9.86 per sq. ft.3
- Major property investors like Brookfield and Blackstone are acquiring warehouses in inland markets, such as Nashville, Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston, seeing long-term value.4
- Retailers and wholesalers are partnering with 3PLs to enhance import flexibility, reduce costs, and streamline operations.5
Implications: Contract logistics providers face rising fixed costs, but investor activity signals a reshaping of warehouse portfolios, especially in inland hubs. This may lead to increased competitive pressure or the consolidation of underperforming facilities.
Sources: 2) Cushman & Wakefield Q2 2025 Report, 3) Partners Real Estate, 4) Business Insider, 5) Industrial & Logistics | CBRE
Technology & Automation Investment
- The global AI in logistics market has exploded to $20.8 billion in 2025, representing a staggering 45.6% CAGR from 2020.6
- The warehouse automation market is now valued at $29.9B, with 16.2% CAGR projected.7
- A wave of M&A activity driven is reshaping the industry, as leading contract logistics providers, such as GXO, DHL, CEVA, and Amazon, acquire robotics and automation capabilities to improve efficiency, scalability and competitiveness.
- Geek+, the global leader in warehouse robotics, listed on HKEX in July 2025, showing strong investor confidence in the future warehouse automation.8
Implications: Leading contract logistics providers are acquiring or merging with automation and AI providers to integrate tech, reduce labor dependence, and secure competitive advantage as margins tighten.
Sources: 6) How AI is Changing Logistics & Supply Chain, 7) Warehouse Automation Market, 8) Geekplus Lists on HKEX
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