2026 Q1 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends

• Global Air Cargo demand grew +6% YoY in 4Q 2025, with December volume up +7% from 2024.⁴​
• 2026 forecasts project modest growth between +2-4% for the full year.¹​
• Ex-APAC demand drove global YTD demand at +8.5% with Europe up +2.9% and North America +1.1%.²
• Intra-Asia growth led regional demand at +15.8% in November, EU-Asia (+11.7%), Middle East-Asia (+11.1%) EU-Middle-East (+5.4%) and Asia-NA (+1.8%) getting back to growth after declines, and all showing expansion.²​

Implications: Demand growth has been resilient for much of 2025 with cautious optimism that the momentum will continue into 2026.

Sources: 1) Xenata 2) IATA 4) WorldACD

• Global capacity growth has narrowed the gap with demand for 2025 ,with overall growth at +4.9%. Driven mostly from the “Silk Road” lanes, with APAC-ISMEA (+18%), EU-APAC (+17%), ISMEA-EU (+12%), EU-APAC (+11%) and ISMEA-APAC (+10%), making up most of the international capacity growth.^3​
• Widebody belly capacity has trailed Freighter capacity growth, +4.5% vs. +5.3% in 2025, with belly capacity growth (+2.1%) expected to outgrow freighter for the most of 2026.³
• Average air cargo rates declined -1% in 2025 compared to 2024, but with a +3.0% cargo Yield increase on a remarkable volume growth.⁴​

Implications: Rates on major trade lanes are likely to be impacted with capacity catching up on demand, likely leading to flat or decline in rates in 2026 except for seasonality or disruption constraining capacity expansion.

Sources: 3) Accenture Cargo 4) WorldACD

• The Air cargo sector is projected to continue providing the needed flexibility for shippers as they navigate the uncertainties with geopolitics and trade barriers.¹​
• Global GDP growth forecasts have been increased from previous projections with more optimistic views across most key trade regions.^5​
• Global Manufacturing PMI fell slightly in December (50.4) but still above the neutral after reaching a 14-month high in August.^5​

Implications: Tariff impacts will continue to create uncertainties even as the temporary de-escalation between the US and China persists. With global trade lane shifts in to accommodate any potential impacts of disruptions and trade barriers , the air cargo sector is poised to continue playing pivotal roles going into 2026.

Sources: 1) Xenata 5) IHS Markit: December 2025

• Mexican exports to the US are up close to 15% in recent months driven primarily by manufacturing activity, outpacing all other sectors—even as some US manufacturing segments soften under tariff pressures.^1​​
• Freight forwarders are focusing on new trade lanes that exclude the US due to tariff turbulence and challenges to keep up with pivoting customs policies as they relate to threats and actual tariff changes.^2​

Implications: Freight forwarders may pursue trade lane opportunities as the logistics corridor between Mexico to US strengthens, while capturing green shoots of activity in the US shipping markets despite tariff volatility.

Sources: 1) FreightWaves 2) AirCargoNews

• TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index forecasts Less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier rates will soften in a seasonally weak first quarter of 2026 with tentative signs of recovery in the trucking industry.³
• The Logistics Managers’ Index forecasts a significant shift in transportation markets for 2026 with expectations for tighter capacity and competitive pricing from carriers.⁴

Implications: Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers may shift their rate strategy in early 2026 before the US transportation market signals a recovery led by further tightening of capacity and a notable upward trend in volume.

Sources: 3) AFS, 4) Logistics Management

• S&P Global's Manufacturing PMI data for December reported factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders and unless demand improves, current factory levels will be unsustainable for 2026.⁵​
• US Trade policy on tariffs will continue in 2026 but the aggressive tone of the announcements may not align with the actual implementation timing or amount actually paid.^6​​

Implications: The US tariff policies and its underlining economic impact on the US consumer gives freight forwarders cause to sustain their flexible cost-effective strategies with a critical eye focused on sourced data about US manufacturing as well as tariff pronouncements.

Sources: 5) S&P Global, 6) FreightWaves

• US containerized imports declined in late 2025 following an early peak season driven by tariff-related front-loading.¹
• Imports from Asia fell month over month in November, extending a multi-month slowdown after earlier inventory buildup.¹
• Retailers reduced inventory levels and delayed replenishment as consumer demand moderated and trade policy uncertainty persisted.¹
• Import volumes stay down year over year through spring. NRF’s Global Port Tracker shows volumes remain lower from January through April, with the first year-over-year gain expected in May.³​

Implications: Softer import demand limits near-term volume recovery and contributes to uneven shipment patterns across US gateways. Shippers continue adjusting order timing and inventory strategies.

Sources: 1) JOC 3) NRF

• Trans-Pacific capacity is expected to continue exceeding demand, keeping pressure on utilization into 2026.
• Carriers are expected to rely on blank sailings, but overall deployed capacity is likely to remain high.
• Spot rates are expected to stay under pressure after seasonal peaks as excess capacity continues to weigh on the market.
• Contract pricing is expected to remain lower than prior cycles as the 2026-27 trans-Pacific contract season reflects weaker carrier pricing power.
• Shipper leverage is expected to remain strong, with excess capacity supporting negotiating power during upcoming contract discussions.

Implications: Ample vessel capacity is expected to favor shippers in the near term. Carriers are likely to continue using blank sailings and network adjustments to manage utilization and margins.
​
Source: JOC

• Tariff uncertainty continued to influence shipping behavior and shipment timing.¹
• Carriers adjusted vessel deployments and sailing schedules in response to shifting demand and policy risk.¹
• Network changes affected service reliability and transit times on key US trade lanes.¹
• Network uncertainty persists. Carriers continue to take a cautious, phased approach to routing changes, particularly around Red Sea and Suez Canal transits.²
• Service changes are expected to be gradual, as carriers continue prioritizing network stability early in 2026.¹

Implications: Shippers may experience variability in routing and transit times as carriers continue adjusting networks. Proactive planning and flexibility remain critical.

Sources: 1) JOC 2) Alphaliner Newsletter 01-2026

• US delays Section 232 increases for furniture/cabinetry but maintains 25%, until January 1st, 2027.​
• US imposes a 25% ad valorem tariff on Section 232 semiconductor duties, high-performance logic semiconductors and derivatives under HTS 8471 and 8473, effective January 15, 2025.​
• United States Trade Representative. (USTR) signaled the USMCA won’t be automatically extended in 2026 without addressing structural issues.²

Implications: Importers should plan around the 25% in Semiconductors, maintain documentation for exclusions and continued 25% Section 232 duty on furniture for the remainder of the year, and cabinetry and closely monitor USMCA developments, as potential renegotiation could affect duty‑free treatment and North American sourcing strategies.

Source: 2) ST&R

• European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) simplification introduces a 50 ton de minimis threshold but expands scope in 2028 to ~180 downstream steel/aluminum products.
• US forced labor enforcement remains assertive, as seen with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Withhold Release Order (WRO) on Serbian-made Linglong tires.³
• The US administration is sharply escalating trade fraud enforcement and with Department of Justice (DOJ), Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and Homeland Security Investigations (HIS) pursuing aggressive civil and criminal actions.⁴

Implications: Importers should prepare for broader CBAM reporting and cost exposure, strengthen forced‑labor due diligence to avoid detentions, and ensure full compliance in classifications, valuations, and origin claims as US authorities ramp up aggressive trade‑fraud enforcement.

Sources: 3)ST&R 4)ST&R

• Canada is tightening its customs valuation rules to clarify which transactions count as the true “sale for export.” Consignment deals, certain non‑traditional sales, and some Canada‑to‑Canada sales can no longer be used to determine customs value, meaning some importers may need to use a different valuation method. These changes mainly affect businesses with multi‑step supply chains or Canadian‑based purchasing entities.⁵
• Effective Dec. 26, 2025, Canada will apply a 25% surtax on imports of certain steel derivative goods like fasteners, wire, mesh, chains and structural components, for commercial-use shipments only.⁶

Implications: Importers should issue comments to CBSA on valuation and verify steel derivative goods for potential surtax implications.

Sources: 5) CBSA 6) CBSA