2025 Q4 Global Freight Transportation and Logistics Trends

• Global Air Cargo demand grew +4% YoY in 3Q 2025, with September volume up +3% from the previous year.¹
• The outlook for Q4 is more muted than previously expected but not as bad as some feared, with overall global growth projected at +3-4% for the full year.¹
• APAC demand continues to drive global growth, +9.0% YTD (Aug) followed by LATAM and Europe at +5.8% and +2.3% respectively.²
• APAC-ISMEA has outpaced all regional lanes (+16%) YTD with LATAM-EU (+15%) APAC-EU (+14%) EU-NA (+11%) and APAC-NA (+11%) all showing strong growth.³

Implications: Demand growth will likely be more muted than hoped but the impacts of global uncertainty are not as bad as some feared.

Sources: 1) Xenata, 2) IATA, 3) Accenture Cargo

• Capacity growth has kept pace with demand through the first half of the year, up +4.5% YTD with “Silk Road” lanes, including APAC-ISMEA (+17%), EU-APAC (+18%), ISMEA-EU (+12%) and EU-APAC (+9%), making up most of the international capacity growth.³
• Widebody belly capacity has trailed Freighter capacity growth, +4.4% vs. +4.6% YTD, with Belly capacity expected to outpace freighter growth for the remainder of 2025.³
• Average rates were down in Q3 YoY but have remained flat MoM for much of 2025. ⁴
• Spot rates have declined YoY for five consecutive months (May-Sep) as capacity shifts out of the transpacific trade lane.¹

Implications: Rates are likely to remain relatively flat though capacity constraints on transpacific lanes could impact rate levels if seasonal demand beats industry expectations.

Sources: 1) Xenata, 3) Accenture Cargo, 4) WorldACD

• Tariff uncertainty continues to impact the market, with trade negotiations heating up between the US and China.^6,7
• Global GDP growth forecasts have been increased from previous projections with more optimistic views across most key trade regions.⁵
• Global Manufacturing PMI fell slightly in September (50.8) after reaching a 14-month high in August.⁵

Implications: Tariff impacts will continue to create volatility as negotiations between the US and China continue. Global trade has shifted to accommodate the potential impact of increased tariffs between the two nations, but positive macroeconomic updates point to some potential optimism to close out 2025.

Sources: 5) IHS Markit, 6) The Loadstar, 7) Bloomberg

• Supply chain decision makers expect some clarity in trade policy outlook during Q4 ’25, although tariffs will remain volatile through 2026.¹​
• Air freight market adopts ‘US Plus One’ strategy and introduces a new era of trade diversification creating US operations to service US consumers while their offshore operations service international consumers.^2​

Implications: Businesses develop supply chain solutions to serve the US market due to tariff policies while embracing the unknown that their strategy may not be sustainable due to the high production costs in the US compared to the lower costs in other countries.

Sources: 1) S&P Global, 2) Worldtop & Meta

• TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index forecasts LTL carriers will continue cost-effective rate pricing and network efficiency to endure a soft market.³
• S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts global growth in 2026 for the economy as a whole, with 2.3% growth in the US.⁴

Implications: Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers will probably continue with their current operating structure until the freight market rebounds sometime in 2026.

Sources: 3) AFS, 4) Logistics Management

• If the US government shutdown extends into early November, Federal Reserve policy makers may be forced to make decisions on interest rates without recent data on employment, inflation, and economic growth due to suspension of government data collection and publication.^5​
• Global trade is expanding and projected to grow 2.5% annually through 2029 as business investment abroad remains steady despite the rise in U.S. tariffs.^6​

Implications: The US government shutdown, if persists long-term, will deliver unwanted impacts to the US economy as global trade pivots toward growth in other markets.

Sources: 5) S&P Global, 6) STAT Times

• The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker projects a sharp year-over-year decline in US import volumes through Q4 2025 and into early 2026.³
• Monthly inbound TEUs are expected to drop below 2 million TEUs, marking one of the lowest levels since 2020.³
• Retailers are delaying orders and scaling back shipments amid tariff uncertainty and slowing consumer demand.⁴
• Tariff uncertainty is expected to keep a lid on US import growth until spring 2026, according to the latest JOC analysis.⁴

Implications: Weaker import demand will limit peak-season recovery. Carriers may continue to blank sailings and adjust capacity. Shippers should plan early for rate volatility and port schedule changes.

Sources: 3) NRF, 4) JOC

• Trans-Pacific capacity hit a record 1.4M TEUs in October, even after 14% of sailings were blanked.¹
• Rates fell to $1,380/FEU West Coast and $2,400/FEU East Coast, both below breakeven (as of late September 2025).¹
• Competition from smaller lines keeps prices low.¹
• Oversupply to last into 2026 as fleet grows 9–10%, while trade demand rises only 1–2%.²

Implications: Shippers benefit from lower prices and available space, while carriers face margin pressure and continue adjusting schedules to stabilize utilization.
​
Sources: 1) JOC, 2) Drewry

• Carriers are shifting fleets away from US routes.¹
• Analysts estimate that the total potential cost for the industry could exceed $3 billion, covering higher port fees, vessel redeployments, and operational adjustments that carriers must make to comply with the new US regulations.¹
• China introduced new port fees on US-built or operated vessels, starting around $56 per ton in 2025 and rising to about $157 by 2028, increasing costs for US carriers trading with China.^5​

Implications: US–Asia trade routes may see reduced capacity and shifting vessel deployments. Shippers could experience new surcharges or longer lead times.

Sources: 1) JOC, 5) S&P

• The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on September 30 means affected imports now face standard most favored nation tariffs and potential reciprocal duties under emergency trade powers.^1​
• Effective November 1, 2025, U.S. imports of medium and heavy-duty vehicles (such as trucks) and their parts will face new Sec. 232 duties. The duties will range from 10% - 25%, depending on the product’s country of origin and classification. USMCA-qualified goods may be exempt from these tariffs.^2​

Implications: These changes could significantly impact sourcing and cost structures, so planning ahead is key.

Sources: 1) ST&R  2) The White House

• Starting in 2026, importers must cover carbon costs under EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by surrendering certificates for emissions. While this requirement begins in 2026, buying certificates may be delayed until early 2027, giving companies more time to prepare.​⁴
• EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation implementation has been delayed to end of 2025 for large companies (and end of 2026 for SMEs) due to technical readiness issues.⁵
• The EU’s Forced Labor Regulation, will ban all products made with forced labor from the EU market starting in 2027. While enforcement is years away, importers should begin evaluating supply chains now to avoid future disruptions.⁶
• CBSA Compliance Focus (July 2025): Semi-annual verifications will now include imports subject to China and U.S. surtaxes.⁷

Implications: Importers should start preparing now by mapping supply chains, collecting emissions and sourcing data, and putting processes in place to meet EU upcoming rules.

Sources: 4) Reuters, 5) EU Commission, 6) EU Commission, 7) CBP

• Customs Border Protection (CBP) urges importers to review and adjust customs bonds to reflect rising duty costs from tariffs. Insufficient bond coverage may trigger compliance notices. Importers should also evaluate ACH setups to pay duties directly and avoid broker fees.​
• CBP is actively targeting transshipment and mis-marking practices aimed at avoiding China tariffs. Proper origin marking per 19 CFR 134 is essential to avoid penalties or shipment denial.^8​
• CBP is expanding the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Entity List and will require importers to use a new compliance portal by 2026.⁷

Implications: Importers should proactively reassess their customs compliance strategies and supply chain transparency to avoid penalties and shipment delays.

Sources: 7) CBP, 8) CBP