2026 Supply Chain Outlook

Moderate Growth With Continued eCommerce Demand Shaping Trade Lanes

The global air freight market is expected to see moderate growth in 2026 as demand stabilizes following volatility in prior years. While overall volume growth is projected to remain modest, underlying demand drivers and shifting trade lanes continue to reshape how supply chain leaders plan capacity, routing and service strategies.

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Global Air Freight Demand Trends

Global air freight demand is forecast to grow approximately 2.7% year-over-year in 2026. Growth is expected to be uneven across regions, with Asia Pacific exports and intra Asia Pacific trade leading demand expansion. US outbound air freight growth is projected to be more moderate, particularly on US to Europe trade lanes.

High tech shipments, including artificial intelligence related infrastructure and global eCommerce fulfillment continue to support air freight demand. Regulatory changes impacting cross border eCommerce may alter shipment profiles, but demand for speed and reliability remains strong.

Lane Realignment to Watch

Capacity is likely to shift toward intra-Asia and Asia→Europe, with volumes continuing to reorient from traditional trans-Pacific routes toward the Silk Road corridors.

What This Means for Shippers

In 2026, air freight strategy will depend less on overall market growth and more on lane specific performance, equipment availability and network flexibility. Shippers moving time sensitive, high value, or technology driven cargo will need reliable access to capacity across evolving trade corridors.

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Overcapacity Creates Pricing Pressure But Increases Complexity

Air freight capacity is expected to continue growing faster than demand in 2026, creating a structurally oversupplied market in several regions.

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Key Air Freight Market Dynamics

• Capacity growth outpacing demand across major global markets

• Downward rate pressure varying by trade lane and aircraft type

• Record utilization levels for dedicated freighter fleets

• Carrier network adjustments toward higher yield and strategic lanes

Disruptions and Impacts to Monitor

• Tariff updates, regulatory changes, and trade negotiations will drive rate and capacity volatility.

• Sustainability and emissions initiatives remain a priority, influencing aircraft selection, routing, and cost structures.

• Shifting capacity from Asia→Americas to Asia→Europe may tighten transPacific availability at times.

What This Means for Shippers

In 2026, air freight strategy depends less on overall market growth and more on lane performance, equipment availability, and network flexibility. Shippers moving time‑sensitive, high‑value or technology‑driven cargo should secure reliable capacity across evolving corridors and diversify modes (e.g., mixing express/direct with consolidated services) to balance cost and speed.

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Capacity Growth Continues to Drive Market Oversupply

Ocean freight markets enter 2026 with sustained overcapacity that is expected to influence carrier behavior, pricing strategies and service reliability across major trade lanes.

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Ocean Freight Supply and Demand Trends

Global container fleet capacity is projected to reach approximately 32.3 million TEU, driven by continued vessel deliveries. The global orderbook now represents roughly 30% of the active fleet, reinforcing long term supply pressure.

Demand forecasts vary significantly by trade lane. Transpacific eastbound volumes are expected to contract while other east west routes may see year-over-year growth. Despite these variations, rates are expected to decline in 2026 as excess capacity persists.

Early 2026 rate forecasts indicate declines of approximately 6% quarter-over-quarter and more than 20% year-over-year on key east-west trades.

Carrier Financials and Network Behavior

• After strong profits in 2024 (~$60B) and materially lower profits in 2025 (~$20B), carriers face a forecasted ~$10B loss in 2026 under current rate and utilization assumptions.

• Expect more blank sailings, capacity control, and reduced schedule reliability, intensifying contract negotiations (particularly Asia→US in Q1).

• Cape of Good Hope reroutes (Red Sea avoidance) have been reducing ~9% of effective capacity at times; limited, cautious reentries to the Suez are being tested, but widespread normalization will require sustained security assurances.

• Northern Europe terminals continue to experience congestion and berthing delays due to labor constraints, alliance port call changes, Rhine river water levels, and weather.

What This Means for Shippers

Lower ocean rates offer cost opportunities, but volatility—from blank sailings to routing shifts and congestion—can quickly erode savings. Build flexible routing, LCL/FCL mix and inland connectivity to hedge risk. Consider multimodal strategies and PO/SKU‑level transit analysis to split orders across express air, standard air, preferred LCL and optimized FCL—improving service resilience while managing cost.

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Resilience Becomes a Strategic Advantage

In North America, supply chain planning for 2026 is shaped by continued tariff uncertainty, evolving sourcing strategies and shifting freight market conditions.

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Key North American Supply Chain Trends

• Tariff volatility expected to persist through 2026

• Expansion of diversified sourcing strategies, including US plus one models

• Mexico strengthening its position as a nearshoring hub for US market access

• Moderate US economic growth paired with cautious freight demand

Growth and Capacity Outlook

US freight volumes are forecast to grow approximately 2.3% in 2026. Truckload and less-than-truckload markets are showing early signs of rebalancing as fleet capacity gradually contracts. Less-than-truckload carriers continue to focus on cost efficiency and network optimization in a soft market environment.

What This Means for Shippers

2026 is a year to prioritize network optionality and flexibility. Businesses that invest in diversified sourcing, multimodal transportation strategies and resilient partner networks will be better positioned to manage policy-driven and economic disruptions.

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Technology Investment Shifts From Efficiency to Resilience

Logistics technology investment is accelerating as supply chain leaders seek tools that improve visibility, decision making and operational agility.

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Key Technology Investments Shaping Logistics

• Artificial intelligence for predictive analytics and operational decision support

• Robotics and autonomous mobile robots improving warehouse productivity and accuracy

• Software-defined warehouses integrating enterprise systems, robotics and real-time data

• Robotics as a service models reducing upfront investment and enabling scalability

• Generative artificial intelligence and digital twins supporting scenario modeling and disruption response

What This Means for Shippers

Technology is increasingly critical to managing uncertainty. The ability to simulate scenarios, monitor inventory in near real time and adapt operations quickly is becoming a competitive requirement rather than a differentiator.

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End-to-End Supply Chain Visibility Remains A Challenge

Data fragmentation across transportation, warehousing and enterprise systems continues to limit decision-making and responsiveness.

• 90% of executives say visibility is vital, yet < one third have achieved it.

• Poor visibility correlates with ~50% higher inventory carrying costs, ~30% longer lead times, and ~15% higher customer complaint rates.

• Only about 60% of companies report full visibility into tier one suppliers, with visibility declining further upstream. This lack of transparency increases exposure to compliance risks, delays and margin erosion.

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What This Means for Shippers

Visibility enables faster decisions, stronger customer service, and improved financial performance. In 2026, visibility is not just a reporting function. It is a core strategic capability.

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